Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) holds an 88.3% implied probability in the Minas Gerais governor race as recent polling from late September consistently shows him leading the first-round field with 37-40% support. Surveys by Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel place Patrus Ananias (PT) in second at 15-31%, with Alexandre Kalil (PDT), incumbent Mateus Simões (PSD), and Flávio Roscoe (PL) clustered lower in single digits amid a fragmented center-right field. Second-round simulations give Azevedo comfortable margins over Ananias and Kalil. His advantage stems from sustained polling gains through September, broad name recognition as a senator, and limited remaining campaign time before the October 4 vote, leaving little room for challengers to close the gap.