**Soto's elite plate discipline and substantial lead in walks, reinforced by Judge's calf injury limiting his remaining playing time, underpin the near-certain trader consensus favoring Soto at 99.6% implied probability.** As of late September 2026, Soto has drawn 73 walks across 106 games and 458 plate appearances for the Mets, maintaining a BB% near 16% while posting a .389 OBP. Judge, meanwhile, sits at just 43 walks in limited action (237 AB) for the Yankees, hampered by a soleus calf strain that landed him on the 10-day IL and threatens to sideline him for the final regular-season games. With only days remaining until the September 28 resolution date, Soto's ongoing at-bats and historical tendency to draw free passes at a high rate have created an insurmountable gap that few realistic developments can close. Injury recovery timelines and any unexpected late-season returns represent the primary variables that could theoretically shift outcomes, though the current deficit and abbreviated schedule make meaningful catch-up improbable. The market's pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating these confirmed roster and health developments rather than projecting future performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks?
Judge
<1% chance
$30,929 Vol.
$30,929 Vol.
Oct 15, 2026
Judge
<1% chance
$30,929 Vol.
$30,929 Vol.
Oct 15, 2026
This market will resolve to “Judge” if Aaron Judge finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks than Juan Soto. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Soto".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Soto's elite plate discipline and substantial lead in walks, reinforced by Judge's calf injury limiting his remaining playing time, underpin the near-certain trader consensus favoring Soto at 99.6% implied probability.**
As of late September 2026, Soto has drawn 73 walks across 106 games and 458 plate appearances for the Mets, maintaining a BB% near 16% while posting a .389 OBP. Judge, meanwhile, sits at just 43 walks in limited action (237 AB) for the Yankees, hampered by a soleus calf strain that landed him on the 10-day IL and threatens to sideline him for the final regular-season games. With only days remaining until the September 28 resolution date, Soto's ongoing at-bats and historical tendency to draw free passes at a high rate have created an insurmountable gap that few realistic developments can close.
Injury recovery timelines and any unexpected late-season returns represent the primary variables that could theoretically shift outcomes, though the current deficit and abbreviated schedule make meaningful catch-up improbable. The market's pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating these confirmed roster and health developments rather than projecting future performance.
This market will resolve to “Judge” if Aaron Judge finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks than Juan Soto. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Soto".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$30,929End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to “Judge” if Aaron Judge finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks than Juan Soto. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Soto".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Soto's elite plate discipline and substantial lead in walks, reinforced by Judge's calf injury limiting his remaining playing time, underpin the near-certain trader consensus favoring Soto at 99.6% implied probability.**
As of late September 2026, Soto has drawn 73 walks across 106 games and 458 plate appearances for the Mets, maintaining a BB% near 16% while posting a .389 OBP. Judge, meanwhile, sits at just 43 walks in limited action (237 AB) for the Yankees, hampered by a soleus calf strain that landed him on the 10-day IL and threatens to sideline him for the final regular-season games. With only days remaining until the September 28 resolution date, Soto's ongoing at-bats and historical tendency to draw free passes at a high rate have created an insurmountable gap that few realistic developments can close.
Injury recovery timelines and any unexpected late-season returns represent the primary variables that could theoretically shift outcomes, though the current deficit and abbreviated schedule make meaningful catch-up improbable. The market's pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating these confirmed roster and health developments rather than projecting future performance.
This market will resolve to “Judge” if Aaron Judge finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more walks than Juan Soto. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Soto".
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the player with more intentional walks during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher on base percentage. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the 2026 MLB season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available MLB statistics for completed games.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player had more walks within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 16, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**Soto's elite plate discipline and substantial lead in walks, reinforced by Judge's calf injury limiting his remaining playing time, underpin the near-certain trader consensus favoring Soto at 99.6% implied probability.** As of late September 2026, Soto has drawn 73 walks across 106 games and 458 plate appearances for the Mets, maintaining a BB% near 16% while posting a .389 OBP. Judge, meanwhile, sits at just 43 walks in limited action (237 AB) for the Yankees, hampered by a soleus calf strain that landed him on the 10-day IL and threatens to sideline him for the final regular-season games. With only days remaining until the September 28 resolution date, Soto's ongoing at-bats and historical tendency to draw free passes at a high rate have created an insurmountable gap that few realistic developments can close. Injury recovery timelines and any unexpected late-season returns represent the primary variables that could theoretically shift outcomes, though the current deficit and abbreviated schedule make meaningful catch-up improbable. The market's pricing reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating these confirmed roster and health developments rather than projecting future performance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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