Kyle Schwarber holds the top implied probability at 40% in the MLB home run leader market due to his consistent power output and favorable remaining schedule for the Phillies, while four players—Schwarber, Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero—sit tied at 35 home runs as of mid-August 2026. Caminero, Olson, and Alvarez follow at 18-21% each, reflecting their strong slugging rates and plate appearances in hitter-friendly environments. Ben Rice trails at 12.9% after reaching 32 homers, with the Yankees' lineup support providing upside. Recent form and pace in the second half of the season have tightened the race among these power hitters, with no major injuries shifting the consensus among traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedKyle Schwarber 40%
Junior Caminero 21.2%
Matt Olson 19.1%
Yordan Alvarez 18.7%
$3,126,574 Vol.
$3,126,574 Vol.
Oct 11, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
40%
Junior Caminero
21%
Matt Olson
19%
Yordan Alvarez
19%
Ben Rice
9%
Munetaka Murakami
2%
James Wood
1%
George Springer
1%
Nick Kurtz
1%
Rafael Devers
1%
Giancarlo Stanton
1%
Aaron Judge
1%
Brandon Lowe
1%
Juan Soto
<1%
Mike Trout
<1%
CJ Abrams
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
<1%
Cal Raleigh
<1%
Pete Alonso
<1%
Sal Stewart
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
<1%
Jordan Walker
<1%
Shea Langeliers
<1%
Manny Machado
<1%
Kyle Schwarber 40%
Junior Caminero 21.2%
Matt Olson 19.1%
Yordan Alvarez 18.7%
$3,126,574 Vol.
$3,126,574 Vol.
Oct 11, 2026
Kyle Schwarber
$20,164 Vol.
40%
Junior Caminero
$1,529 Vol.
21%
Matt Olson
$1,937 Vol.
19%
Yordan Alvarez
$9,311 Vol.
19%
Ben Rice
$1,322 Vol.
9%
Munetaka Murakami
$7,779 Vol.
2%
James Wood
$2,507 Vol.
1%
George Springer
$508 Vol.
1%
Nick Kurtz
$1,340 Vol.
1%
Rafael Devers
$593 Vol.
1%
Giancarlo Stanton
$564 Vol.
1%
Aaron Judge
$4,680 Vol.
1%
Brandon Lowe
$469,421 Vol.
1%
Juan Soto
$647,547 Vol.
<1%
Mike Trout
$1,747,632 Vol.
<1%
CJ Abrams
$203,613 Vol.
<1%
Shohei Ohtani
$627 Vol.
<1%
Eugenio Suarez
$573 Vol.
<1%
Cal Raleigh
$666 Vol.
<1%
Pete Alonso
$372 Vol.
<1%
Sal Stewart
$603 Vol.
<1%
Elly De La Cruz
$839 Vol.
<1%
Jordan Walker
$559 Vol.
<1%
Shea Langeliers
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
Manny Machado
$547 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds the top implied probability at 40% in the MLB home run leader market due to his consistent power output and favorable remaining schedule for the Phillies, while four players—Schwarber, Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero—sit tied at 35 home runs as of mid-August 2026. Caminero, Olson, and Alvarez follow at 18-21% each, reflecting their strong slugging rates and plate appearances in hitter-friendly environments. Ben Rice trails at 12.9% after reaching 32 homers, with the Yankees' lineup support providing upside. Recent form and pace in the second half of the season have tightened the race among these power hitters, with no major injuries shifting the consensus among traders.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET
Volume
$3,126,574End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds the top implied probability at 40% in the MLB home run leader market due to his consistent power output and favorable remaining schedule for the Phillies, while four players—Schwarber, Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero—sit tied at 35 home runs as of mid-August 2026. Caminero, Olson, and Alvarez follow at 18-21% each, reflecting their strong slugging rates and plate appearances in hitter-friendly environments. Ben Rice trails at 12.9% after reaching 32 homers, with the Yankees' lineup support providing upside. Recent form and pace in the second half of the season have tightened the race among these power hitters, with no major injuries shifting the consensus among traders.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,126,574End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Kyle Schwarber holds the top implied probability at 40% in the MLB home run leader market due to his consistent power output and favorable remaining schedule for the Phillies, while four players—Schwarber, Matt Olson, Yordan Alvarez, and Junior Caminero—sit tied at 35 home runs as of mid-August 2026. Caminero, Olson, and Alvarez follow at 18-21% each, reflecting their strong slugging rates and plate appearances in hitter-friendly environments. Ben Rice trails at 12.9% after reaching 32 homers, with the Yankees' lineup support providing upside. Recent form and pace in the second half of the season have tightened the race among these power hitters, with no major injuries shifting the consensus among traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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