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Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

icon for MLB: Home Runs Leader
Sports·MLB

MLB: Home Runs Leader

Kyle Schwarber 40%

Matt Olson 38.3%

Junior Caminero 21.8%

Yordan Alvarez 16.1%

Polymarket

$3,126,574 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber 40%

Matt Olson 38.3%

Junior Caminero 21.8%

Yordan Alvarez 16.1%

Polymarket

$3,126,574 Vol.

Kyle Schwarber

$20,164 Vol.

40%

Matt Olson

$1,937 Vol.

38%

Junior Caminero

$1,529 Vol.

22%

Yordan Alvarez

$9,351 Vol.

17%

Ben Rice

$1,322 Vol.

18%

Munetaka Murakami

$7,779 Vol.

2%

James Wood

$2,507 Vol.

1%

George Springer

$508 Vol.

1%

Nick Kurtz

$1,340 Vol.

1%

Rafael Devers

$593 Vol.

1%

Giancarlo Stanton

$564 Vol.

1%

Aaron Judge

$4,680 Vol.

1%

Brandon Lowe

$469,421 Vol.

1%

Juan Soto

$647,547 Vol.

<1%

Mike Trout

$1,747,632 Vol.

<1%

CJ Abrams

$203,613 Vol.

<1%

Shohei Ohtani

$627 Vol.

<1%

Eugenio Suarez

$573 Vol.

<1%

Cal Raleigh

$666 Vol.

<1%

Pete Alonso

$372 Vol.

<1%

Sal Stewart

$603 Vol.

<1%

Elly De La Cruz

$839 Vol.

<1%

Jordan Walker

$559 Vol.

<1%

Shea Langeliers

$1,341 Vol.

<1%

Manny Machado

$547 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds the top market position at 40% implied probability as one of four players tied for the MLB lead with 35 home runs through mid-August, benefiting from consistent power production for the Phillies and a favorable remaining schedule. Junior Caminero (21.6%), Yordan Alvarez (18.7%), and Matt Olson (17.3%) sit closely behind at the same 35-home-run mark, reflecting their strong slugging rates, high at-bat volume, and established track records in power categories. Ben Rice trails at 10.4% amid solid but lower totals, while the rest of the field sits below 2% due to fewer home runs accumulated and steeper paths to catch the leaders. Recent weeks have seen these four maintain or extend their edge through multi-home-run outings and steady playing time, shaping trader consensus around the current standings.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,126,574
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kyle Schwarber holds the top market position at 40% implied probability as one of four players tied for the MLB lead with 35 home runs through mid-August, benefiting from consistent power production for the Phillies and a favorable remaining schedule. Junior Caminero (21.6%), Yordan Alvarez (18.7%), and Matt Olson (17.3%) sit closely behind at the same 35-home-run mark, reflecting their strong slugging rates, high at-bat volume, and established track records in power categories. Ben Rice trails at 10.4% amid solid but lower totals, while the rest of the field sits below 2% due to fewer home runs accumulated and steeper paths to catch the leaders. Recent weeks have seen these four maintain or extend their edge through multi-home-run outings and steady playing time, shaping trader consensus around the current standings.

This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,126,574
End Date
Sep 28, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 22, 2026, 12:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the player who records the most home runs during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by the rules of the MLB. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the player with the higher slugging percentage during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, then this market will resolve in favor of the player with the higher batting average during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player that records more hits during the 2026 MLB regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB regular season is cancelled, postponed after October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no official leader declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related

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icon for Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?

Will Yordan Alvarez have the highest batting average in the 2026 MLB regular season?

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icon for Will Yordan Alvarez lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: Home Runs Leader" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 25 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kyle Schwarber" at 40%, followed by "Matt Olson" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: Home Runs Leader" has generated $3.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 22, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: Home Runs Leader," browse the 25 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" is "Kyle Schwarber" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Olson" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: Home Runs Leader" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.