The Rays hold the top AL record at 97-63 after clinching the East, buoyed by a deep rotation featuring Peralta and Rasmussen plus consistent late-season form that has kept them ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox. Guardians sit close behind at roughly 85-76 after securing the Central with a strong September surge and home-field edge in early rounds, while the Yankees' superior run differential keeps them competitive despite recent losses to Tampa Bay. The bunched probabilities among these three reflect how short postseason series amplify variance in pitching matchups and bullpen reliability across a weak AL West and middling Central race. White Sox momentum and the Astros-Rangers tie add further uncertainty heading into the bracket.