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Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

icon for MLB: AL Rookie of the Year
Sports·Rookie

MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Kevin McGonigle 87%

Munetaka Murakami 9.1%

Kazuma Okamoto 1.1%

Parker Messick 1.1%

Polymarket

$1,627,640 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle 87%

Munetaka Murakami 9.1%

Kazuma Okamoto 1.1%

Parker Messick 1.1%

Polymarket

$1,627,640 Vol.

Kevin McGonigle

$46,441 Vol.

87%

Munetaka Murakami

$59,915 Vol.

9%

Kazuma Okamoto

$229,704 Vol.

1%

Parker Messick

$1,667 Vol.

1%

Trey Yesavage

$3,128 Vol.

1%

Chase DeLauter

$4,625 Vol.

1%

Payton Tolle

$194,819 Vol.

1%

Travis Bazzana

$4,867 Vol.

1%

Spencer Jones

$37,922 Vol.

1%

Samuel Basallo

$2,344 Vol.

<1%

Carlos Lagrange

$65,425 Vol.

<1%

Connelly Early

$70,843 Vol.

<1%

Carter Jensen

$94,109 Vol.

<1%

Colt Emerson

$2,321 Vol.

<1%

Walker Jenkins

$62,838 Vol.

<1%

Brice Matthews

$140,327 Vol.

<1%

Leo De Vries

$111,290 Vol.

<1%

Sam Antonacci

$208 Vol.

<1%

Carson Williams

$429,820 Vol.

<1%

Max Clark

$62,505 Vol.

<1%

George Lombard Jr.

$228 Vol.

<1%

Tatsuya Imai

$833 Vol.

<1%

Dylan Beavers

$1,464 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle, the Detroit Tigers shortstop, has established a commanding lead in the AL Rookie of the Year race through elite 2026 production, including a .285/.390/.426 slash line, 12 home runs, 48 RBI, and roughly 5.5 WAR across more than 110 games. His advanced metrics—top-tier OBP, walk-to-strikeout discipline, and wRC+—plus All-Star selection have solidified trader consensus around an 87% implied probability. Recent form, including post-break surges and consistent contributions in a rebuilding Detroit lineup, has widened the gap over challengers such as Munetaka Murakami. A late injury, sharp decline, or unforeseen surge from another qualified rookie could still shift the outcome before season's end.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,627,640
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Kevin McGonigle, the Detroit Tigers shortstop, has established a commanding lead in the AL Rookie of the Year race through elite 2026 production, including a .285/.390/.426 slash line, 12 home runs, 48 RBI, and roughly 5.5 WAR across more than 110 games. His advanced metrics—top-tier OBP, walk-to-strikeout discipline, and wRC+—plus All-Star selection have solidified trader consensus around an 87% implied probability. Recent form, including post-break surges and consistent contributions in a rebuilding Detroit lineup, has widened the gap over challengers such as Munetaka Murakami. A late injury, sharp decline, or unforeseen surge from another qualified rookie could still shift the outcome before season's end.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season.

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,627,640
End Date
Dec 19, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 26, 2026, 5:10 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Rookie of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin McGonigle" at 87%, followed by "Munetaka Murakami" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" is "Kevin McGonigle" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Munetaka Murakami" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MLB: AL Rookie of the Year" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.