Sal Stewart leads the NL Rookie of the Year market at 70.3% implied probability due to his standout power production as a Reds first baseman, including 32 home runs and an MLB-leading 111 RBI through the final week of the 2026 regular season. These totals, achieved while slashing .263/.330/.457, align with historical voter emphasis on run production for rookies and have solidified his position after he overtook earlier frontrunners. Carson Benge sits second at 23.5% on the strength of his Mets outfield contributions, featuring a .282 average, 20 homers, 22 steals, and elite defensive metrics that produced a higher WAR total near 4.3. JJ Wetherholt’s wrist injury and subsequent IL stint sharply reduced his chances, while the remaining candidates trail far behind on limited playing time or less dominant rookie campaigns.