The open MN-02 seat, vacated by retiring Democrat Angie Craig, pits DFL nominee Matt Little against Republican Eric Pratt in a suburban-rural district with a recent history of competitive House races. Recent Impact Research polling from mid-September shows Little ahead by roughly 12 points, consistent with the district's 2024 Democratic margin and broader midterm fundamentals favoring the party holding the White House. Trader consensus on narrower margins reflects uncertainty over turnout among suburban independents, the impact of national economic messaging, and Pratt's established state Senate profile in key counties. No major late developments have shifted the baseline, leaving room for movement based on final get-out-the-vote efforts or unexpected campaign events before November 3.