Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results, released after hours on July 29, delivered a substantial earnings beat with EPS of $4.74 versus consensus estimates near $4.24 and revenue of $90 billion against $87.6 billion forecasts, fueled by 43% Azure growth and sustained AI demand. The shares responded with a 15.5% surge to close at $451.10 on July 30, shifting trader focus toward near-term momentum ahead of the August 3 close. With no major data releases or corporate events scheduled between now and then, attention centers on whether the post-earnings rally holds amid broader market volatility and typical profit-taking following such a move. Market-implied odds in related prediction contracts reflect this recent strength while pricing in the inherent uncertainty of short-term price action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 3, 2026
$430
80%
$440
67%
$450
52%
$460
35%
$470
19%
$0.00 Vol.
$430
$0 Vol.
80%
$440
$0 Vol.
67%
$450
$0 Vol.
52%
$460
$0 Vol.
35%
$470
$0 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results, released after hours on July 29, delivered a substantial earnings beat with EPS of $4.74 versus consensus estimates near $4.24 and revenue of $90 billion against $87.6 billion forecasts, fueled by 43% Azure growth and sustained AI demand. The shares responded with a 15.5% surge to close at $451.10 on July 30, shifting trader focus toward near-term momentum ahead of the August 3 close. With no major data releases or corporate events scheduled between now and then, attention centers on whether the post-earnings rally holds amid broader market volatility and typical profit-taking following such a move. Market-implied odds in related prediction contracts reflect this recent strength while pricing in the inherent uncertainty of short-term price action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 8:43 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 8:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results, released after hours on July 29, delivered a substantial earnings beat with EPS of $4.74 versus consensus estimates near $4.24 and revenue of $90 billion against $87.6 billion forecasts, fueled by 43% Azure growth and sustained AI demand. The shares responded with a 15.5% surge to close at $451.10 on July 30, shifting trader focus toward near-term momentum ahead of the August 3 close. With no major data releases or corporate events scheduled between now and then, attention centers on whether the post-earnings rally holds amid broader market volatility and typical profit-taking following such a move. Market-implied odds in related prediction contracts reflect this recent strength while pricing in the inherent uncertainty of short-term price action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) on August 3, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
If the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSD.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 3, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 8:43 AM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.MSFT%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's fiscal Q4 2026 results, released after hours on July 29, delivered a substantial earnings beat with EPS of $4.74 versus consensus estimates near $4.24 and revenue of $90 billion against $87.6 billion forecasts, fueled by 43% Azure growth and sustained AI demand. The shares responded with a 15.5% surge to close at $451.10 on July 30, shifting trader focus toward near-term momentum ahead of the August 3 close. With no major data releases or corporate events scheduled between now and then, attention centers on whether the post-earnings rally holds amid broader market volatility and typical profit-taking following such a move. Market-implied odds in related prediction contracts reflect this recent strength while pricing in the inherent uncertainty of short-term price action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions