Incumbent Democrat Don Davis and Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout remain locked in a close contest for North Carolina’s 1st congressional district, with recent polling averages showing Davis ahead by roughly 2 points or less. The race tightened after 2025 redistricting shifted the district boundaries to include more Republican-leaning counties, turning a previously Democratic seat into a toss-up or lean-Republican contest according to multiple forecasters. Both candidates secured their nominations earlier in the year, setting up a rematch of the narrow 2024 general election. The narrow spreads in current trader-implied probabilities reflect limited separation in head-to-head surveys and the absence of major campaign-altering events in recent weeks. Factors that could widen margins before November 3 include turnout differences among key voting blocs, additional polling releases, or late campaign developments in this battleground district.