Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent polling edge over Democrat Cinde Warmington in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent aggregates showing her ahead by roughly 10 to 14 points after both secured their nominations in the September 8 primaries. Trader probabilities cluster across Ayotte's mid-single to low-double-digit victory margins because New Hampshire's large independent voter bloc and emphasis on state issues such as housing costs and taxes can produce variable turnout and preference shifts in the final weeks. Warmington's performance in Democratic-leaning areas and any late shifts in economic sentiment or campaign spending could compress or expand the spread, while Ayotte's improved job approval provides a buffer against narrower outcomes. The distribution of odds across bins captures this uncertainty in the exact margin ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAyotte 9-12% 18%
Ayotte 6-9% 15%
Ayotte 12-15% 15%
Ayotte 3-6% 10%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Ayotte 18%+
2%
Ayotte 15-18%
5%
Ayotte 12-15%
18%
Ayotte 9-12%
18%
Ayotte 6-9%
15%
Ayotte 3-6%
10%
Ayotte 0-3%
4%
Warmington 0-3%
9%
Warmington 3-6%
3%
Warmington 6%+
1%
Ayotte 9-12% 18%
Ayotte 6-9% 15%
Ayotte 12-15% 15%
Ayotte 3-6% 10%
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2027
Ayotte 18%+
$139 Vol.
2%
Ayotte 15-18%
$210 Vol.
5%
Ayotte 12-15%
$273 Vol.
18%
Ayotte 9-12%
$2,869 Vol.
18%
Ayotte 6-9%
$1,140 Vol.
15%
Ayotte 3-6%
$292 Vol.
10%
Ayotte 0-3%
$158 Vol.
4%
Warmington 0-3%
$184 Vol.
9%
Warmington 3-6%
$108 Vol.
3%
Warmington 6%+
$78 Vol.
1%
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent polling edge over Democrat Cinde Warmington in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent aggregates showing her ahead by roughly 10 to 14 points after both secured their nominations in the September 8 primaries. Trader probabilities cluster across Ayotte's mid-single to low-double-digit victory margins because New Hampshire's large independent voter bloc and emphasis on state issues such as housing costs and taxes can produce variable turnout and preference shifts in the final weeks. Warmington's performance in Democratic-leaning areas and any late shifts in economic sentiment or campaign spending could compress or expand the spread, while Ayotte's improved job approval provides a buffer against narrower outcomes. The distribution of odds across bins captures this uncertainty in the exact margin ahead of the November 3 election.
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$5,451End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent polling edge over Democrat Cinde Warmington in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent aggregates showing her ahead by roughly 10 to 14 points after both secured their nominations in the September 8 primaries. Trader probabilities cluster across Ayotte's mid-single to low-double-digit victory margins because New Hampshire's large independent voter bloc and emphasis on state issues such as housing costs and taxes can produce variable turnout and preference shifts in the final weeks. Warmington's performance in Democratic-leaning areas and any late shifts in economic sentiment or campaign spending could compress or expand the spread, while Ayotte's improved job approval provides a buffer against narrower outcomes. The distribution of odds across bins captures this uncertainty in the exact margin ahead of the November 3 election.
The 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,451End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte holds a consistent polling edge over Democrat Cinde Warmington in the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, with recent aggregates showing her ahead by roughly 10 to 14 points after both secured their nominations in the September 8 primaries. Trader probabilities cluster across Ayotte's mid-single to low-double-digit victory margins because New Hampshire's large independent voter bloc and emphasis on state issues such as housing costs and taxes can produce variable turnout and preference shifts in the final weeks. Warmington's performance in Democratic-leaning areas and any late shifts in economic sentiment or campaign spending could compress or expand the spread, while Ayotte's improved job approval provides a buffer against narrower outcomes. The distribution of odds across bins captures this uncertainty in the exact margin ahead of the November 3 election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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