Friedrich Merz has served as German chancellor since May 2025 at the head of a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition, with the next regular Bundestag election not due until 2029. Recent state election losses for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and Berlin, coupled with AfD gains and Merz’s low personal approval ratings, have fueled speculation about a mid-term “Kanzlertausch.” Party state premiers have publicly backed Merz’s continuation, however, and no formal challenge or coalition collapse has materialized. Traders therefore assign the highest probability to no change before 2028, while assigning modest implied probabilities to potential successors such as Hendrik Wüst and Markus Söder. Upcoming 2027 state elections and any further erosion of coalition support remain the main near-term variables that could alter these assessments.