**Rumors of a fresh pretraining run for Anthropic’s Claude Fable line, combined with community reports of stealth routing from Fable 5.1 requests to an unreleased model inside Claude Code, are the main drivers keeping early-October release odds near 50%.** No official announcement, model card, API identifier, or pricing has appeared since Fable 5.1 launched on September 1, leaving traders to weigh unverified X posts against Anthropic’s history of measured rollout cadence. The tight clustering of probabilities across early and mid-October dates reflects this information gap, with markets assigning roughly even odds to a launch before October 31 versus later. Key near-term catalysts include any Anthropic blog post, API update, or credible benchmark leak that could break the deadlock.