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icon for Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

icon for Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?
Tech·AI

Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?

Oct 1

Oct 31

Oct 1

Oct 31

October 19 22%

No release by October 31 22%

October 18 21%

October 24 21%

Polymarket
NEW

October 19 22%

No release by October 31 22%

October 18 21%

October 24 21%

Polymarket
NEW

On or prior to October 1

$65 Vol.

12%

October 2

$39 Vol.

1%

October 3

$50 Vol.

4%

October 4

$57 Vol.

5%

October 5

$39 Vol.

1%

October 6

$57 Vol.

6%

October 7

$50 Vol.

5%

October 8

$57 Vol.

5%

October 9

$39 Vol.

1%

October 10

$71 Vol.

11%

October 11

$102 Vol.

10%

October 12

$57 Vol.

5%

October 13

$50 Vol.

5%

October 14

$57 Vol.

5%

October 15

$57 Vol.

9%

October 16

$42 Vol.

16%

October 17

$57 Vol.

7%

October 18

$42 Vol.

21%

October 19

$42 Vol.

22%

October 20

$42 Vol.

12%

October 21

$60 Vol.

13%

October 22

$57 Vol.

5%

October 23

$57 Vol.

6%

October 24

$42 Vol.

21%

October 25

$57 Vol.

5%

October 26

$70 Vol.

7%

October 27

$50 Vol.

9%

October 28

$57 Vol.

5%

October 29

$57 Vol.

12%

October 30

$57 Vol.

7%

October 31

$57 Vol.

6%

No release by October 31

$142 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, first teased at I/O in May 2026 and repeatedly pushed from June and July targets, represent the core driver behind the 35.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by October 31. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lighter Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases in early-to-mid September, while confirming 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing and short of internal coding and agentic benchmarks. This pattern, combined with the start of Gemini 4 pre-training and absence of any confirmed October timeline or certification signals, sustains trader skepticism toward near-term Pro availability despite scattered October date pricing in the 4–21% range. Historical release slippage and the focus on incremental Flash improvements continue to shape aggregated sentiment in this market.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,834
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing delays with Google's flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro model, first teased at I/O in May 2026 and repeatedly pushed from June and July targets, represent the core driver behind the 35.5% market-implied probability of no Pro release by October 31. The company has instead prioritized rapid iteration on lighter Flash variants, including Gemini 3.8 Flash and 3.8 Live releases in early-to-mid September, while confirming 3.5 Pro remains in partner testing and short of internal coding and agentic benchmarks. This pattern, combined with the start of Gemini 4 pre-training and absence of any confirmed October timeline or certification signals, sustains trader skepticism toward near-term Pro availability despite scattered October date pricing in the 4–21% range. Historical release slippage and the focus on incremental Flash improvements continue to shape aggregated sentiment in this market.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.

Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.

Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,834
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 4:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No release by October 31" at 22%, followed by "October 21" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?" is "No release by October 31" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "October 21" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Gemini Pro Model released on...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.