Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with version 1.3 launching September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code for gains in long-horizon agentic workflows and coding efficiency, drives the closely matched October probabilities for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh Meta Superintelligence Labs’ monthly update pattern, competitive pressure from frontier models at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and Zuckerberg’s emphasis on scaling toward personal agents and affordable API access against the lack of a confirmed timeline or safety-testing milestones. The spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty over whether the next iteration will prioritize demonstrated capability jumps or await larger “Watermelon” model progress, while the modest “no release by October 31” odds underscore expectations of continued momentum in Meta’s developer-focused strategy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOctober 15 26%
October 29 24%
October 19 23%
October 16 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
24%
October 2
12%
October 3
7%
October 4
8%
October 5
6%
October 6
16%
October 7
12%
October 8
13%
October 9
12%
October 10
6%
October 11
6%
October 12
10%
October 13
12%
October 14
12%
October 15
26%
October 16
16%
October 17
15%
October 18
10%
October 19
23%
October 20
12%
October 21
10%
October 22
8%
October 23
9%
October 24
13%
October 25
9%
October 26
24%
October 27
11%
October 28
6%
October 29
24%
October 30
8%
October 31
25%
No release by October 31
14%
October 15 26%
October 29 24%
October 19 23%
October 16 16%
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
On or prior to October 1
$24 Vol.
24%
October 2
$24 Vol.
12%
October 3
$24 Vol.
7%
October 4
$24 Vol.
8%
October 5
$24 Vol.
6%
October 6
$24 Vol.
16%
October 7
$24 Vol.
12%
October 8
$24 Vol.
13%
October 9
$29 Vol.
12%
October 10
$24 Vol.
6%
October 11
$24 Vol.
6%
October 12
$24 Vol.
10%
October 13
$24 Vol.
12%
October 14
$24 Vol.
12%
October 15
$24 Vol.
26%
October 16
$24 Vol.
16%
October 17
$24 Vol.
15%
October 18
$24 Vol.
10%
October 19
$24 Vol.
23%
October 20
$24 Vol.
12%
October 21
$24 Vol.
10%
October 22
$24 Vol.
8%
October 23
$24 Vol.
9%
October 24
$24 Vol.
13%
October 25
$24 Vol.
9%
October 26
$24 Vol.
24%
October 27
$24 Vol.
11%
October 28
$24 Vol.
6%
October 29
$24 Vol.
24%
October 30
$24 Vol.
8%
October 31
$32 Vol.
25%
No release by October 31
$84 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with version 1.3 launching September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code for gains in long-horizon agentic workflows and coding efficiency, drives the closely matched October probabilities for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh Meta Superintelligence Labs’ monthly update pattern, competitive pressure from frontier models at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and Zuckerberg’s emphasis on scaling toward personal agents and affordable API access against the lack of a confirmed timeline or safety-testing milestones. The spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty over whether the next iteration will prioritize demonstrated capability jumps or await larger “Watermelon” model progress, while the modest “no release by October 31” odds underscore expectations of continued momentum in Meta’s developer-focused strategy.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ET
Volume
$847End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with version 1.3 launching September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code for gains in long-horizon agentic workflows and coding efficiency, drives the closely matched October probabilities for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh Meta Superintelligence Labs’ monthly update pattern, competitive pressure from frontier models at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and Zuckerberg’s emphasis on scaling toward personal agents and affordable API access against the lack of a confirmed timeline or safety-testing milestones. The spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty over whether the next iteration will prioritize demonstrated capability jumps or await larger “Watermelon” model progress, while the modest “no release by October 31” odds underscore expectations of continued momentum in Meta’s developer-focused strategy.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$847End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 7:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta’s rapid iteration on the Muse Spark series, with version 1.3 launching September 2 via the Meta Model API and Muse Code for gains in long-horizon agentic workflows and coding efficiency, drives the closely matched October probabilities for a 1.4+ release. Traders weigh Meta Superintelligence Labs’ monthly update pattern, competitive pressure from frontier models at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, and Zuckerberg’s emphasis on scaling toward personal agents and affordable API access against the lack of a confirmed timeline or safety-testing milestones. The spread across mid-to-late October dates reflects uncertainty over whether the next iteration will prioritize demonstrated capability jumps or await larger “Watermelon” model progress, while the modest “no release by October 31” odds underscore expectations of continued momentum in Meta’s developer-focused strategy.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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