Gavin McKenna, the Toronto Maple Leafs' first overall pick from the 2026 NHL Draft after a productive freshman season at Penn State, leads early Calder Trophy markets at roughly 27-28% implied probability due to his projected top-line role and playmaking ability. A deep 2026 draft class featuring high selections such as Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, Cole Hutson, and Anton Frondell keeps the field bunched, with no single prospect holding a dominant edge. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty around rookie ice time, team deployment, and the historical pattern that even elite first-year players require strong offensive production and health to separate from peers in a competitive rookie cohort.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGavin McKenna 28%
Ivar Stenberg 13%
Adam Novotný 5.0%
Caleb Malhotra 4.5%
$31,156 Vol.
$31,156 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
Gavin McKenna
28%
Ivar Stenberg
13%
Adam Novotný
5%
Caleb Malhotra
4%
Alexander Command
4%
Markus Ruck
4%
Viggo Björck
2%
Carson Carels
1%
Keaton Verhoeff
1%
Tommy Bleyl
1%
Chase Reid
1%
JP Hurlbert
<1%
William Hakansson
<1%
Alberts Smits
<1%
Mathis Preston
<1%
Ilya Morozov
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
<1%
Nikita Klepov
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
<1%
Oscar Hemming
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
<1%
Ethan Belchetz
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
<1%
Ryan Lin
<1%
Liam Ruck
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
<1%
Elton Hermansson
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
<1%
Gavin McKenna 28%
Ivar Stenberg 13%
Adam Novotný 5.0%
Caleb Malhotra 4.5%
$31,156 Vol.
$31,156 Vol.
Apr 30, 2027
Gavin McKenna
$15,413 Vol.
28%
Ivar Stenberg
$5,144 Vol.
13%
Adam Novotný
$3,290 Vol.
5%
Caleb Malhotra
$49 Vol.
4%
Alexander Command
$461 Vol.
4%
Markus Ruck
$20 Vol.
4%
Viggo Björck
$1,582 Vol.
2%
Carson Carels
$1,397 Vol.
1%
Keaton Verhoeff
$202 Vol.
1%
Tommy Bleyl
$953 Vol.
1%
Chase Reid
$614 Vol.
1%
JP Hurlbert
$312 Vol.
<1%
William Hakansson
$49 Vol.
<1%
Alberts Smits
$44 Vol.
<1%
Mathis Preston
$49 Vol.
<1%
Ilya Morozov
$20 Vol.
<1%
Daxon Rudolph
$5 Vol.
<1%
Nikita Klepov
$160 Vol.
<1%
Malte Gustafsson
$140 Vol.
<1%
Wyatt Cullen
$140 Vol.
<1%
Oscar Hemming
$40 Vol.
<1%
Marcus Nordmark
$40 Vol.
<1%
Oliver Suvanto
$40 Vol.
<1%
Ethan Belchetz
$40 Vol.
<1%
Tynan Lawrence
$311 Vol.
<1%
Ryan Lin
$140 Vol.
<1%
Liam Ruck
$140 Vol.
<1%
Xavier Villeneuve
$140 Vol.
<1%
Elton Hermansson
$40 Vol.
<1%
Maddox Dagenais
$180 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Calder Memorial Trophy for the 2026-27 NHL season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gavin McKenna, the Toronto Maple Leafs' first overall pick from the 2026 NHL Draft after a productive freshman season at Penn State, leads early Calder Trophy markets at roughly 27-28% implied probability due to his projected top-line role and playmaking ability. A deep 2026 draft class featuring high selections such as Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, Cole Hutson, and Anton Frondell keeps the field bunched, with no single prospect holding a dominant edge. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty around rookie ice time, team deployment, and the historical pattern that even elite first-year players require strong offensive production and health to separate from peers in a competitive rookie cohort.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Calder Memorial Trophy for the 2026-27 NHL season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 25, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Volume
$31,156Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the player who wins the Calder Memorial Trophy for the 2026-27 NHL season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Gavin McKenna, the Toronto Maple Leafs' first overall pick from the 2026 NHL Draft after a productive freshman season at Penn State, leads early Calder Trophy markets at roughly 27-28% implied probability due to his projected top-line role and playmaking ability. A deep 2026 draft class featuring high selections such as Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, Cole Hutson, and Anton Frondell keeps the field bunched, with no single prospect holding a dominant edge. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty around rookie ice time, team deployment, and the historical pattern that even elite first-year players require strong offensive production and health to separate from peers in a competitive rookie cohort.
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Calder Memorial Trophy for the 2026-27 NHL season.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NHL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
If the 2026-27 NHL season is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NHL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,156Market Opened
Jun 25, 2026, 1:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Gavin McKenna, the Toronto Maple Leafs' first overall pick from the 2026 NHL Draft after a productive freshman season at Penn State, leads early Calder Trophy markets at roughly 27-28% implied probability due to his projected top-line role and playmaking ability. A deep 2026 draft class featuring high selections such as Ivar Stenberg, Porter Martone, Cole Hutson, and Anton Frondell keeps the field bunched, with no single prospect holding a dominant edge. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty around rookie ice time, team deployment, and the historical pattern that even elite first-year players require strong offensive production and health to separate from peers in a competitive rookie cohort.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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