Democrat Rebecca Bennett’s victory over Republican incumbent Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district produced a final margin near 15.7 points, aligning with the market’s dominant 15-18% outcome. Election-night results showed Bennett at roughly 57-59% and Kean at 41%, reflecting a 21-point Democratic shift from the prior cycle when Kean won by about 5 points. Traders priced this range heavily after confirmed vote tallies across Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, and Union counties demonstrated consistent Democratic strength in a district that Trump carried narrowly in 2024. Kean’s earlier four-month medical absence from Congress and missed votes became a central campaign issue that Bennett leveraged, while national midterm dynamics amplified turnout advantages for Democrats in suburban New Jersey seats. With nearly all precincts reported and the race called by major outlets, the implied probability remains concentrated on the observed margin pending final certification.