Katharina Pötter, the CDU incumbent serving since 2021, commands overwhelming trader consensus in the Osnabrück mayoral market after securing 42.2 percent in the September 13 first round—up from her 35.75 percent showing in 2021—and advancing to the September 27 runoff against Volker Bajus of the Greens, who finished second at 22.3 percent. Her improved first-round result, combined with the CDU’s established local organization and her prior runoff victory in 2021, underpins the elevated implied probability. Other candidates, including SPD, Left, AfD, and FDP contenders, split the remaining vote and failed to reach the runoff. The runoff format concentrates opposition support behind Bajus, yet historical patterns and Pötter’s margin leave limited scope for an upset absent unusually high differential turnout or late shifts in voter preferences.