A recent Franklin & Marshall College poll from mid-September shows Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson leading incumbent Republican Scott Perry 47% to 44% among registered voters in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, with 9% undecided, reinforcing the race’s status as a toss-up. This rematch follows Perry’s narrow 2024 victory by roughly 1.2 points. Stelson holds a fundraising advantage and stronger support among independents and moderates, while voters rank the economy as their top concern amid broader midterm dynamics. Traders’ consensus assigning Stelson an 80.5% implied probability reflects these polling trends, her resource edge, and historical patterns in competitive districts, though the narrow margin and undecided voters leave room for shifts before November 3, including an upcoming October 14 debate.