**As of September 24, 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory recorded just 94.2 mm of rainfall for the month, far below the 1991–2020 climatological normal of 321.4 mm.** Official daily data confirm persistently dry conditions after mid-September, with mostly trace amounts or zero precipitation on recent days. Nine-day forecasts through early October emphasize high-pressure dominance, light winds, and low probabilities of significant rain, with only isolated light showers possible later in the period. These verified observations and model consensus underpin the market-implied odds exceeding 98% for a September total below 275 mm. An unforecasted tropical cyclone or sudden monsoon surge could add substantial rainfall in the final days, but current guidance from the Observatory shows no such development.