As of September 25, 2026, Central Park has recorded 2.21 inches of precipitation for the month, about 1.2 inches below the 1991–2020 normal through the 24th. An approaching coastal low and associated frontal system are forecast by the National Weather Service to deliver the bulk of remaining rainfall from September 26–28, with probabilities of 70–90% for measurable rain each day and model guidance indicating 2–4 inches possible across the New York City area. This late-month surge is the dominant factor lifting market-implied odds for the 4–5 inch and 5–6 inch bins to 37% and 25%, respectively, while keeping sub-3 inch outcomes below 5%. With only five days left and limited additional rain expected after September 28, the final total hinges primarily on exact storm totals and any model revisions in the next 48 hours.