**Trader consensus on NYC September precipitation centers on the 4–5 inch range at 38% implied probability, reflecting below-average accumulation through September 24 at 2.21 inches against a 3.42-inch normal.** With only five days remaining, National Weather Service data and short-range forecasts indicate moderate additional rainfall—primarily from systems expected Saturday through Monday—likely adding 1.5–3 inches under typical late-September patterns. This keeps totals near the long-term monthly average of roughly 4.3 inches as the highest-probability outcome, while limiting chances for extremes above 6 inches or below 3 inches absent an unforecasted heavy event. Model guidance shows no strong consensus for anomalous intensification, supporting the current market distribution across the central buckets.