**Trader sentiment strongly favors <75 mm total precipitation in Seoul for September 2026 (95.5% implied probability), reflecting observed and forecast data showing unusually dry conditions through the month’s end.** As of September 25, daily observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration indicate limited rainfall accumulations, with many days recording zero or trace amounts and only isolated events (such as early-month totals near 23 mm and recent light rain near 10 mm on the 25th). Forecasts for September 26–30 show low precipitation probabilities, predominantly dry or with minimal chances under stable high-pressure patterns, adding little to the monthly total. Historical September averages near 141 mm (with high variability from monsoon and typhoon influences) make this year’s trajectory atypical, supporting the market’s dominant outcome. Realistic challenges include an unforecasted late-month system delivering heavy localized rain, though current model consensus and short remaining window limit that likelihood. Market-implied odds align with this evidence-based assessment of low totals.