Elevated headline inflation at 4.1% in the June 2026 quarter, driven by higher global oil and fuel prices amid Middle East tensions, has anchored RBNZ policy expectations for the December meeting. The central bank raised the OCR 25 basis points to 2.75% in September, maintaining a tightening bias and projecting a gradual path toward roughly 3.2% to return inflation sustainably to the 2% midpoint by late 2027 while core measures and wage expectations remain contained. Recent GDP resilience and bank forecasts for further 25bp moves in October or December support the 41% implied probability of a hike, yet markets price the December decision as finely balanced given easing energy effects and uneven domestic recovery.