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icon for Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

icon for Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Richest person on December 31, 2026?

Jan 3, 2027

Jan 3, 2027

Elon Musk 96.9%

Warren Buffett 1.1%

Jeff Bezos <1%

Mark Zuckerberg <1%

Polymarket

$1,934,222 Vol.

Elon Musk 96.9%

Warren Buffett 1.1%

Jeff Bezos <1%

Mark Zuckerberg <1%

Polymarket

$1,934,222 Vol.

icon for Elon Musk

Elon Musk

$196,830 Vol.

97%

icon for Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett

$92,785 Vol.

1%

icon for Jeff Bezos

Jeff Bezos

$345,533 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mark Zuckerberg

Mark Zuckerberg

$133,868 Vol.

<1%

icon for Larry Ellison

Larry Ellison

$61,786 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bernard Arnault

Bernard Arnault

$369,162 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jensen Huang

Jensen Huang

$180,866 Vol.

<1%

icon for Steve Ballmer

Steve Ballmer

$312,349 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergey Brin

Sergey Brin

$89,152 Vol.

<1%

icon for Larry Page

Larry Page

$151,624 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michael Dell

Michael Dell

$268 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's commanding lead in the richest-person market stems primarily from his dominant stakes in SpaceX following its June 2026 IPO and ongoing Tesla holdings, which have kept his fortune well above $900 billion even after post-IPO volatility and a brief trillionaire peak. This positions him hundreds of billions ahead of rivals like Larry Page, creating a gap that would require an unprecedented collapse in his assets or a historic surge elsewhere to close by year-end. Traders see the outcome as highly stable given the concentration of wealth in high-profile tech ventures with established momentum, though sharp market swings in SpaceX or Tesla shares remain the main realistic path to any surprise shift.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,934,222
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.Elon Musk's commanding lead in the richest-person market stems primarily from his dominant stakes in SpaceX following its June 2026 IPO and ongoing Tesla holdings, which have kept his fortune well above $900 billion even after post-IPO volatility and a brief trillionaire peak. This positions him hundreds of billions ahead of rivals like Larry Page, creating a gap that would require an unprecedented collapse in his assets or a historic surge elsewhere to close by year-end. Traders see the outcome as highly stable given the concentration of wealth in high-profile tech ventures with established momentum, though sharp market swings in SpaceX or Tesla shares remain the main realistic path to any surprise shift.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Volume
$1,934,222
End Date
Jan 3, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Elon Musk" at 97%, followed by "Warren Buffett" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Richest person on December 31, 2026?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" is "Elon Musk" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Warren Buffett" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Richest person on December 31, 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.