The primary driver of trader sentiment for a potential national emergency declaration on New World screwworm (NWS, *Cochliomyia hominivorax*) remains the confirmed U.S. detections since June 3, 2026, beginning with a calf in Zavala County, Texas, and expanding to dozens of cases across Texas and New Mexico in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and dogs by mid-September. USDA-APHIS leads containment via sterile insect technique releases exceeding 80 million flies weekly, 20-km quarantine zones, movement controls, and expanded trapping, while an August 2025 HHS declaration of significant public health emergency potential has enabled over a dozen FDA emergency use authorizations for topical and injectable treatments. CDC reports no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with the U.S. food supply unaffected as larvae do not infest meat. Ongoing model-driven surveillance and Mexico border coordination will shape whether case counts or geographic spread trigger broader federal action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedScrewworm National Emergency declared by...?
Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
October 31
42%
December 31
46%
$1,880 Vol.
October 31
$13 Vol.
42%
December 31
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment for a potential national emergency declaration on New World screwworm (NWS, *Cochliomyia hominivorax*) remains the confirmed U.S. detections since June 3, 2026, beginning with a calf in Zavala County, Texas, and expanding to dozens of cases across Texas and New Mexico in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and dogs by mid-September. USDA-APHIS leads containment via sterile insect technique releases exceeding 80 million flies weekly, 20-km quarantine zones, movement controls, and expanded trapping, while an August 2025 HHS declaration of significant public health emergency potential has enabled over a dozen FDA emergency use authorizations for topical and injectable treatments. CDC reports no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with the U.S. food supply unaffected as larvae do not infest meat. Ongoing model-driven surveillance and Mexico border coordination will shape whether case counts or geographic spread trigger broader federal action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,880End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The primary driver of trader sentiment for a potential national emergency declaration on New World screwworm (NWS, *Cochliomyia hominivorax*) remains the confirmed U.S. detections since June 3, 2026, beginning with a calf in Zavala County, Texas, and expanding to dozens of cases across Texas and New Mexico in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and dogs by mid-September. USDA-APHIS leads containment via sterile insect technique releases exceeding 80 million flies weekly, 20-km quarantine zones, movement controls, and expanded trapping, while an August 2025 HHS declaration of significant public health emergency potential has enabled over a dozen FDA emergency use authorizations for topical and injectable treatments. CDC reports no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with the U.S. food supply unaffected as larvae do not infest meat. Ongoing model-driven surveillance and Mexico border coordination will shape whether case counts or geographic spread trigger broader federal action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,880End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 10, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The primary driver of trader sentiment for a potential national emergency declaration on New World screwworm (NWS, *Cochliomyia hominivorax*) remains the confirmed U.S. detections since June 3, 2026, beginning with a calf in Zavala County, Texas, and expanding to dozens of cases across Texas and New Mexico in cattle, sheep, goats, horses, and dogs by mid-September. USDA-APHIS leads containment via sterile insect technique releases exceeding 80 million flies weekly, 20-km quarantine zones, movement controls, and expanded trapping, while an August 2025 HHS declaration of significant public health emergency potential has enabled over a dozen FDA emergency use authorizations for topical and injectable treatments. CDC reports no locally acquired human cases and very low public risk, with the U.S. food supply unaffected as larvae do not infest meat. Ongoing model-driven surveillance and Mexico border coordination will shape whether case counts or geographic spread trigger broader federal action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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