Recent fuel price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed South African headline inflation to 4.4% in August, well above the 3% target, prompting the SARB’s unanimous 25 basis point hike to 7.25% on September 23. The central bank’s Quarterly Projection Model now projects broadly stable policy rates through year-end, with inflation expected to peak above 5% before easing toward target by late 2027, supporting trader consensus around a November hold. Downside growth risks at 1.2% for 2026 and resilient rand conditions further anchor expectations against additional moves, though upside inflation surprises could still shift pricing ahead of the November 19 meeting.