Polymarket's trader consensus prices a closely contested S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with $7,000-$7,500 leading at 25.5% implied probability amid balanced 24-25% odds for adjacent $6,500-$8,000 bins, reflecting current index levels near 7,444 after recent record highs fueled by Q1 earnings beats exceeding 20% growth and sustained AI investment momentum. April nonfarm payrolls rose a soft 115,000—below 165,000 estimates—cooling labor market expectations and anchoring Fed funds at 3.63% with markets pricing just one late-2026 cut, capping multiple expansion despite 17-21% CY2026 EPS forecasts from analysts targeting 7,600-8,250. Key swing factors include May CPI trajectory and June FOMC guidance, where hotter inflation could compress valuations while softer jobs data unlocks easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
14%
$6,000-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$7,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500
26%
$7,500-$8,000
23%
>$8,000
23%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$7,500-$8,000 17%
$6,500-$7,000 15%
>$8,000 15%
$25,377 Vol.
$25,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$15,544 Vol.
14%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,479 Vol.
15%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,389 Vol.
23%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Vol.
26%
$7,500-$8,000
$2,554 Vol.
23%
>$8,000
$2,298 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a closely contested S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with $7,000-$7,500 leading at 25.5% implied probability amid balanced 24-25% odds for adjacent $6,500-$8,000 bins, reflecting current index levels near 7,444 after recent record highs fueled by Q1 earnings beats exceeding 20% growth and sustained AI investment momentum. April nonfarm payrolls rose a soft 115,000—below 165,000 estimates—cooling labor market expectations and anchoring Fed funds at 3.63% with markets pricing just one late-2026 cut, capping multiple expansion despite 17-21% CY2026 EPS forecasts from analysts targeting 7,600-8,250. Key swing factors include May CPI trajectory and June FOMC guidance, where hotter inflation could compress valuations while softer jobs data unlocks easing.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$25,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket's trader consensus prices a closely contested S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with $7,000-$7,500 leading at 25.5% implied probability amid balanced 24-25% odds for adjacent $6,500-$8,000 bins, reflecting current index levels near 7,444 after recent record highs fueled by Q1 earnings beats exceeding 20% growth and sustained AI investment momentum. April nonfarm payrolls rose a soft 115,000—below 165,000 estimates—cooling labor market expectations and anchoring Fed funds at 3.63% with markets pricing just one late-2026 cut, capping multiple expansion despite 17-21% CY2026 EPS forecasts from analysts targeting 7,600-8,250. Key swing factors include May CPI trajectory and June FOMC guidance, where hotter inflation could compress valuations while softer jobs data unlocks easing.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$25,377End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus prices a closely contested S&P 500 year-end 2026 close, with $7,000-$7,500 leading at 25.5% implied probability amid balanced 24-25% odds for adjacent $6,500-$8,000 bins, reflecting current index levels near 7,444 after recent record highs fueled by Q1 earnings beats exceeding 20% growth and sustained AI investment momentum. April nonfarm payrolls rose a soft 115,000—below 165,000 estimates—cooling labor market expectations and anchoring Fed funds at 3.63% with markets pricing just one late-2026 cut, capping multiple expansion despite 17-21% CY2026 EPS forecasts from analysts targeting 7,600-8,250. Key swing factors include May CPI trajectory and June FOMC guidance, where hotter inflation could compress valuations while softer jobs data unlocks easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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