**Persistent dryness and record warmth across the Southern Plains and Southeast continue to drive expansion of exceptional (D4) drought conditions into late September 2026.** The U.S. Drought Monitor for the week ending September 22 showed D4 covering 1.8% of the contiguous U.S., with degradation noted in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, and parts of Georgia and surrounding states amid multi-month precipitation deficits and above-normal temperatures. The contiguous U.S. recorded its warmest June–August on record, sustaining widespread drought affecting nearly 50% of the area. The next USDM release (October 1, based on data through September 29) will incorporate any late-month rainfall or continued deficits, with short-term model guidance and official monitoring from NOAA and the National Drought Mitigation Center serving as key inputs for traders assessing state-level D4 presence.