Recent geopolitical supply disruptions, including Libyan field outages and lingering Middle East export constraints tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, have supported WTI prices near $92 per barrel as of late September 2026, following swings above $100 earlier in the month. Global inventories have drawn down sharply—by an estimated 400 million barrels year-to-date—with further declines projected through year-end, per EIA data, keeping the market in backwardation. Traders are monitoring weekly EIA inventory releases, potential Hormuz transit improvements, and the October FOMC meeting for demand signals amid higher fuel prices. October settlement will hinge on whether supply shocks persist or ease before seasonal demand shifts.