Recent housing market data releases through late September 2026 indicate Miami median home values have stabilized near the $1.14 million level, supporting the 93.5% market-implied probability for the $1.125M–$1.161M bin on Polymarket. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, reflects flat-to-modest year-over-year changes in sale prices and Zillow Home Value Index readings, with buyer-friendly inventory levels and days-on-market metrics limiting upside volatility ahead of the September 30 resolution. Key swing factors that could still shift the outcome include final MLS transaction revisions or adjustments to the underlying median calculation methodology.