Elevated mortgage rates near 6.67% continue to weigh on Austin metro affordability, supporting the 27% market-implied probability on a sub-$397,000 median home value by year-end amid recent sales data showing $412,000 in August. Elevated inventory, new construction competition, and year-over-year price declines of 6-10% have shifted conditions toward buyers, with median listing prices easing to $446,450 in September. The spread across buckets from $397,000-$446,000+ reflects uncertainty over whether softening demand and supply dynamics will push the figure lower or stabilize near current levels. Key catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and seasonal sales trends that could alter the path through December.