Recent sales data indicate Austin metro median home prices have settled in the low-to-mid $400,000 range, with August figures at $412,000–$415,000 and July at $435,000, well below the $446,000 threshold. Elevated mortgage rates, elevated inventory levels near five months of supply, and competition from new construction priced in the mid-$300,000s have sustained buyer leverage and capped price recovery through the third quarter. Trader consensus at 97.4% for the sub-$446,000 outcome reflects these verified trends and the proximity to the September 30 resolution date, which limits scope for material upside. A sharp, unexpected influx of high-value closings in the final days could theoretically shift the median, though current volume and pricing patterns make that outcome remote.