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icon for What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?

Oct 11

Oct 11

<$446K 97.2%

$470K - $478K 2.1%

$446K - $454K 1.0%

$462K - $470K <1%

Polymarket

$98,439 Vol.

<$446K 97.2%

$470K - $478K 2.1%

$446K - $454K 1.0%

$462K - $470K <1%

Polymarket

$98,439 Vol.

<$446K

$36,655 Vol.

97%

$446K - $454K

$17,298 Vol.

1%

$454K - $462K

$8,029 Vol.

<1%

$462K - $470K

$6,461 Vol.

<1%

$470K - $478K

$14,177 Vol.

2%

$478K - $486K

$5,516 Vol.

<1%

$486K+

$10,303 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Trader consensus heavily favors the <$446K outcome at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent downward pressure on Austin metro home values amid elevated mortgage rates, elevated inventory, and softening buyer demand.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the median sale price at $435,000 in July and $412,000 in August, down year-over-year, while Realtor.com median listing prices fell to $450,000 in August from higher 2025 levels. Analysts project further moderation through year-end toward the low $410,000–$420,000 range, supported by slower sales growth and price cuts on resale listings. With resolution just days away, limited scope exists for a sharp reversal unless late-month transaction data produces an outsized positive surprise. Key swing factors remain mortgage rate movements and any acceleration in closed sales volume.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$98,439
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)**Trader consensus heavily favors the <$446K outcome at 97.3% implied probability, reflecting persistent downward pressure on Austin metro home values amid elevated mortgage rates, elevated inventory, and softening buyer demand.** Recent Unlock MLS data showed the median sale price at $435,000 in July and $412,000 in August, down year-over-year, while Realtor.com median listing prices fell to $450,000 in August from higher 2025 levels. Analysts project further moderation through year-end toward the low $410,000–$420,000 range, supported by slower sales growth and price cuts on resale listings. With resolution just days away, limited scope exists for a sharp reversal unless late-month transaction data produces an outsized positive surprise. Key swing factors remain mortgage rate movements and any acceleration in closed sales volume.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$98,439
End Date
Oct 11, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$446K" at 97%, followed by "$470K - $478K" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?" has generated $98.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?" is "<$446K" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$470K - $478K" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.