Persistent impasse in Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, marked by Moscow's insistence on expert-level groundwork and Zelenskyy's willingness to meet only in neutral venues, drives the 65.5% probability traders assign to no Putin-Zelenskyy summit by December 31, 2027. Recent September 2026 developments, including Ukrainian strikes during Russian parliamentary elections and Putin's statements that all proposals remain under review but require assessment of Russian interests, have reinforced this positioning. U.S. efforts to revive trilateral technical talks, with the UAE floated as a potential site following earlier Abu Dhabi rounds, support modest probabilities for Middle Eastern locations, while Kremlin demands that Zelenskyy travel to Moscow limit prospects elsewhere. Ongoing military exchanges and absence of confirmed leader-level commitments sustain uncertainty across listed sites.