The Storm Prediction Center’s latest Day 1 outlook places a marginal severe risk, including a 2% tornado probability contour, across portions of the Florida Panhandle where a stalled frontal boundary and exceptionally moist air mass (precipitable water exceeding 2 inches) support scattered thunderstorms. Recent NAM guidance suggests possible weak offshore cyclogenesis that could briefly boost low-level shear and storm-relative helicity near the coast, favoring transient low-level circulations or waterspouts rather than long-track tornadoes. Cities such as Panama City, Fort Walton Beach, and nearby coastal areas lie within the outlined corridor. Elsewhere across the contiguous U.S., organized severe potential remains negligible through the period. Updated SPC outlooks and new model runs issued later today will provide the next key data points for refining local tornado probabilities.