Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5's commanding 83.0% score on the latest leaderboard snapshot, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0%. The model's strong results across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and instruction-following categories reflect Anthropic's focused iteration on frontier large language models, outpacing competitors in contamination-resistant evaluations. OpenAI trails at 32.5% amid close but secondary placements, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit below 1% due to limited recent benchmark gains. With two months until resolution, new model releases or updates from either leader could narrow the gap before the October cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
61%
OpenAI
32%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
1%
1%
Baidu
1%
Tencent
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Anthropic 61%
OpenAI 32%
DeepSeek <1%
ByteDance <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$4,647 Vol.
61%
OpenAI
$1,085 Vol.
32%
DeepSeek
$177 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$235 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$217 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$240 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$224 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$245 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$177 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$187 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$175 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$256 Vol.
1%
Meta
$224 Vol.
1%
$153 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$236 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$235 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$185 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$207 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$230 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$128 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5's commanding 83.0% score on the latest leaderboard snapshot, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0%. The model's strong results across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and instruction-following categories reflect Anthropic's focused iteration on frontier large language models, outpacing competitors in contamination-resistant evaluations. OpenAI trails at 32.5% amid close but secondary placements, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit below 1% due to limited recent benchmark gains. With two months until resolution, new model releases or updates from either leader could narrow the gap before the October cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$9,649End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5's commanding 83.0% score on the latest leaderboard snapshot, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0%. The model's strong results across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and instruction-following categories reflect Anthropic's focused iteration on frontier large language models, outpacing competitors in contamination-resistant evaluations. OpenAI trails at 32.5% amid close but secondary placements, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit below 1% due to limited recent benchmark gains. With two months until resolution, new model releases or updates from either leader could narrow the gap before the October cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$9,649End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment at 60.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench overall score by end of October 2026, driven by Claude Fable 5's commanding 83.0% score on the latest leaderboard snapshot, ahead of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol at 81.0%. The model's strong results across reasoning, coding, mathematics, and instruction-following categories reflect Anthropic's focused iteration on frontier large language models, outpacing competitors in contamination-resistant evaluations. OpenAI trails at 32.5% amid close but secondary placements, while other labs like Google, Meta, and Chinese developers sit below 1% due to limited recent benchmark gains. With two months until resolution, new model releases or updates from either leader could narrow the gap before the October cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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