Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former intelligence officials and political figures such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci amid the second Trump administration’s emphasis on reviewing prior investigations into Russiagate, the COVID-19 response, and related matters through the Department of Justice. Heightened enforcement activity, including record ICE operations and selective federal prosecutions reported since early 2025, has shaped expectations around potential charges or arrests before the 2027 cutoff. Lower-priced outcomes tied to figures like Barack Obama and Adam Schiff reflect structural barriers including term limits, statutes of limitations, and historical patterns of limited accountability for senior officials. International resolutions, such as any proceedings involving José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, hinge on foreign judicial timelines that could intersect with U.S. developments. No major new indictments or arrests directly affecting leading candidates have occurred in the past month, leaving pricing sensitive to upcoming DOJ announcements, congressional oversight, or diplomatic shifts within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$357,201 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
12%
John Brennan
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
20%
Adam Schiff
3%
Barack Obama
1%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
32%
James Clapper
14%
Letitia James
13%
Hillary Clinton
3%
Bill Clinton
3%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
6%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
3%
Pam Bondi
3%
Tom Homan
11%
Kash Patel
3%
Brandon Johnson
8%
Lisa Cook
11%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
2%
$357,201 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$128,333 Vol.
12%
John Brennan
$18,168 Vol.
29%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$21,499 Vol.
20%
Adam Schiff
$16,394 Vol.
3%
Barack Obama
$28,484 Vol.
1%
James Comey
$9,601 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,278 Vol.
32%
James Clapper
$6,706 Vol.
14%
Letitia James
$2,821 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$25,009 Vol.
3%
Bill Clinton
$2,008 Vol.
3%
Loretta Lynch
$2,376 Vol.
11%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$263 Vol.
6%
Gavin Newsom
$37,141 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,789 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$346 Vol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$1,998 Vol.
3%
Tom Homan
$39,428 Vol.
11%
Kash Patel
$530 Vol.
3%
Brandon Johnson
$3,174 Vol.
8%
Lisa Cook
$3,218 Vol.
11%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$5,538 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former intelligence officials and political figures such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci amid the second Trump administration’s emphasis on reviewing prior investigations into Russiagate, the COVID-19 response, and related matters through the Department of Justice. Heightened enforcement activity, including record ICE operations and selective federal prosecutions reported since early 2025, has shaped expectations around potential charges or arrests before the 2027 cutoff. Lower-priced outcomes tied to figures like Barack Obama and Adam Schiff reflect structural barriers including term limits, statutes of limitations, and historical patterns of limited accountability for senior officials. International resolutions, such as any proceedings involving José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, hinge on foreign judicial timelines that could intersect with U.S. developments. No major new indictments or arrests directly affecting leading candidates have occurred in the past month, leaving pricing sensitive to upcoming DOJ announcements, congressional oversight, or diplomatic shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$357,201Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former intelligence officials and political figures such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci amid the second Trump administration’s emphasis on reviewing prior investigations into Russiagate, the COVID-19 response, and related matters through the Department of Justice. Heightened enforcement activity, including record ICE operations and selective federal prosecutions reported since early 2025, has shaped expectations around potential charges or arrests before the 2027 cutoff. Lower-priced outcomes tied to figures like Barack Obama and Adam Schiff reflect structural barriers including term limits, statutes of limitations, and historical patterns of limited accountability for senior officials. International resolutions, such as any proceedings involving José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, hinge on foreign judicial timelines that could intersect with U.S. developments. No major new indictments or arrests directly affecting leading candidates have occurred in the past month, leaving pricing sensitive to upcoming DOJ announcements, congressional oversight, or diplomatic shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$357,201Market Opened
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign the highest implied probabilities in this market to former intelligence officials and political figures such as John Brennan and Anthony Fauci amid the second Trump administration’s emphasis on reviewing prior investigations into Russiagate, the COVID-19 response, and related matters through the Department of Justice. Heightened enforcement activity, including record ICE operations and selective federal prosecutions reported since early 2025, has shaped expectations around potential charges or arrests before the 2027 cutoff. Lower-priced outcomes tied to figures like Barack Obama and Adam Schiff reflect structural barriers including term limits, statutes of limitations, and historical patterns of limited accountability for senior officials. International resolutions, such as any proceedings involving José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, hinge on foreign judicial timelines that could intersect with U.S. developments. No major new indictments or arrests directly affecting leading candidates have occurred in the past month, leaving pricing sensitive to upcoming DOJ announcements, congressional oversight, or diplomatic shifts within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions