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Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

icon for Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?
Sports·ATP

Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?

54% chance
Polymarket
NEW
54% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz remains on the 2026 US Open entry list as defending champion despite a right-wrist injury that has sidelined him since the Barcelona Open in April. The world No. 2 withdrew from the Cincinnati Open on August 5 to prioritize recovery, extending a four-month layoff that already caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Traders see a narrow edge for participation because the 23-year-old is still training at low intensity and has not received full medical clearance for competitive matches. A positive update on intensity ramp-up or entry into the Winston-Salem Open could strengthen the “Yes” side, while any further setback or official withdrawal would quickly shift sentiment toward absence. The tight 54.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty over whether he can regain match fitness in time for the hard-court major.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,859
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Carlos Alcaraz remains on the 2026 US Open entry list as defending champion despite a right-wrist injury that has sidelined him since the Barcelona Open in April. The world No. 2 withdrew from the Cincinnati Open on August 5 to prioritize recovery, extending a four-month layoff that already caused him to miss Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Traders see a narrow edge for participation because the 23-year-old is still training at low intensity and has not received full medical clearance for competitive matches. A positive update on intensity ramp-up or entry into the Winston-Salem Open could strengthen the “Yes” side, while any further setback or official withdrawal would quickly shift sentiment toward absence. The tight 54.5% implied probability reflects uncertainty over whether he can regain match fitness in time for the hard-court major.

This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No."

Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes."

If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,859
Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve "Yes" if Carlos Alcaraz competes in at least one main-draw singles match at the 2026 US Open, scheduled for August 30, 2026 to September 13, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No." Carlos Alcaraz is considered to have "played" if he takes the court and play begins in any of his main-draw singles matches. Being entered in the draw, or an opponent's retirement or walkover before any play begins, does not by itself count as having played. If Alcaraz begins a match and then retires or is defaulted, this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond September 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or canceled before Alcaraz plays a main-draw singles match, this market will resolve "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Open (usopen.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 55% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 55¢, the market collectively assigns a 55% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 6, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" is 55% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 55% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Carlos Alcaraz Play in the U.S. Open?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.