Russia continues to rely on contract recruitment, expanded prisoner enlistment, and administrative pressure to sustain its forces in Ukraine, with voluntary sign-ups falling short of targets in 2026 amid reported high casualties. The September 18–20 State Duma elections have passed without an immediate public announcement, though preparatory steps—including regional mobilization drills, legal expansions for conscripting additional convicts, an electronic military registry, and tightened deferment rules—remain active. Russian officials, including President Putin, have repeatedly dismissed reports of a new wave as hoaxes or provocations, stressing that no such decision has been made. Ukrainian intelligence assesses plans for hundreds of thousands of additional personnel through 2027, potentially via the still-active 2022 partial mobilization framework or covert measures, but independent confirmation of any final order is absent. The post-election period remains a key window for any shift in approach.