Recent legislative momentum in Illinois has tilted trader consensus toward the Bears remaining in the state through year-end. The Illinois House advanced the megaprojects bill in April with a 78-32 vote, and a key Senate committee cleared it 15-5 in mid-May, easing property-tax concerns that had pushed the team toward a competing offer in Hammond, Indiana. Bears president Kevin Warren has signaled a late-spring or early-summer decision, with Governor Pritzker publicly urging swift resolution to keep the franchise in-state ahead of a potential 2030 domed stadium opening. While Indiana’s financing package remains on the table, the narrowing timeline and incremental progress on tax certainty in Springfield have lifted the implied probability that the team will not relocate by December 31.