Several open-seat gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature term-limited incumbents across competitive states, producing tight polling averages and limited name recognition for nominees. Ohio stands out with recent surveys showing margins under 2 points between leading Democratic and Republican candidates, while Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Florida similarly register narrow spreads amid shifting voter turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics. Primary outcomes and running-mate selections in the past month have narrowed fields without creating clear separation. Trader consensus reflects this cluster of battleground and lean-competitive races, where modest shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or late-cycle events could reorder probabilities before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOhio 17.4%
Floride 16.8%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,920 Vol.
$11,920 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ohio
17%
Floride
14%
Wisconsin
13%
Kansas
12%
Texas
12%
Iowa
12%
Georgia
9%
New Hampshire
9%
Alaska
7%
Nevada
5%
Michigan
4%
Oregon
4%
Vermont
3%
Minnesota
3%
Colorado
2%
New Mexico
2%
Arizona
1%
Maine
1%
Ohio 17.4%
Floride 16.8%
Wisconsin 12.6%
Kansas 12.2%
$11,920 Vol.
$11,920 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Ohio
$428 Vol.
17%
Floride
$234 Vol.
14%
Wisconsin
$975 Vol.
13%
Kansas
$2,114 Vol.
12%
Texas
$1,644 Vol.
12%
Iowa
$1,485 Vol.
12%
Georgia
$302 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$277 Vol.
9%
Alaska
$212 Vol.
7%
Nevada
$2,103 Vol.
5%
Michigan
$334 Vol.
4%
Oregon
$331 Vol.
4%
Vermont
$181 Vol.
3%
Minnesota
$219 Vol.
3%
Colorado
$248 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$199 Vol.
2%
Arizona
$274 Vol.
1%
Maine
$360 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature term-limited incumbents across competitive states, producing tight polling averages and limited name recognition for nominees. Ohio stands out with recent surveys showing margins under 2 points between leading Democratic and Republican candidates, while Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Florida similarly register narrow spreads amid shifting voter turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics. Primary outcomes and running-mate selections in the past month have narrowed fields without creating clear separation. Trader consensus reflects this cluster of battleground and lean-competitive races, where modest shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or late-cycle events could reorder probabilities before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$11,920Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several open-seat gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature term-limited incumbents across competitive states, producing tight polling averages and limited name recognition for nominees. Ohio stands out with recent surveys showing margins under 2 points between leading Democratic and Republican candidates, while Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Florida similarly register narrow spreads amid shifting voter turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics. Primary outcomes and running-mate selections in the past month have narrowed fields without creating clear separation. Trader consensus reflects this cluster of battleground and lean-competitive races, where modest shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or late-cycle events could reorder probabilities before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,920Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several open-seat gubernatorial contests in 2026 feature term-limited incumbents across competitive states, producing tight polling averages and limited name recognition for nominees. Ohio stands out with recent surveys showing margins under 2 points between leading Democratic and Republican candidates, while Wisconsin, Kansas, Iowa, and Florida similarly register narrow spreads amid shifting voter turnout patterns and national midterm dynamics. Primary outcomes and running-mate selections in the past month have narrowed fields without creating clear separation. Trader consensus reflects this cluster of battleground and lean-competitive races, where modest shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or late-cycle events could reorder probabilities before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?
23%
La course au Sénat du Texas en 2026 se jouera-t-elle à moins de 5 % ?
72%
Oui
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le vote populaire lors des élections de mi-mandat à la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis de 2026 avec une avance comprise entre 8 % et 10 % ?
27%
Oui
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