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Élections·Trump

Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ?

icon for Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ?
Élections·Trump

Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ?

Oui

4% chance
Polymarket

$83,865 Vol.

Oui

4% chance
Polymarket

$83,865 Vol.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Republicans achieving a post-midterm trifecta with a 60-seat Senate supermajority, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the chamber's map where the GOP must defend 22 of 35 seats up—including two Florida and Ohio specials tied to VP Vance and Secretary Rubio—while flipping at least seven of Democrats' 13 to net the required gains atop 31 safe Republican incumbents. Historical midterm losses for the president's party average 3-4 Senate seats, amplified by recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead 48-42% as of May 14 and GOP retirements like McConnell, Ernst, and Tuberville weakening battlegrounds. House control remains competitive, but no forecast projects beyond a slim GOP Senate edge. Late scandals, economic surges, or primary blowouts could marginally shift odds before November 3.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$83,865
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification. Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.4% for Republicans achieving a post-midterm trifecta with a 60-seat Senate supermajority, reflecting the steep structural barriers in the chamber's map where the GOP must defend 22 of 35 seats up—including two Florida and Ohio specials tied to VP Vance and Secretary Rubio—while flipping at least seven of Democrats' 13 to net the required gains atop 31 safe Republican incumbents. Historical midterm losses for the president's party average 3-4 Senate seats, amplified by recent generic ballot polls showing Democrats ahead 48-42% as of May 14 and GOP retirements like McConnell, Ernst, and Tuberville weakening battlegrounds. House control remains competitive, but no forecast projects beyond a slim GOP Senate edge. Late scandals, economic surges, or primary blowouts could marginally shift odds before November 3.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats.

If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.

A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$83,865
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, as a result of the midterm elections, the Republican Party controls the U.S. presidency, controls the U.S. House of Representatives, and holds at least 60 seats in the U.S. Senate. This market will resolve based on the results of all Congress elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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Questions fréquentes

« Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Les Républicains remportent-ils la Trifecta avec une supermajorité au Sénat lors des élections de mi-mandat ? » à 4%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 4¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 4% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ? » a généré $83.9K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 2, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Les républicains gagnent Trifecta avec la Supermajorité du Sénat à mi-parcours ? » est « Les Républicains remportent-ils la Trifecta avec une supermajorité au Sénat lors des élections de mi-mandat ? » à seulement 4%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

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