This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
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Questions fréquentes
« KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Thomas Massie » à 56%, suivi de « Ed Gallrein » à 44%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 56¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » a généré $955.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 1, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » est « Thomas Massie » à 56%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Ed Gallrein » à 44%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $955.4K échangés sur « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 56¢ pour « Thomas Massie » sur le marché « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 56% que « Thomas Massie » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 56¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 44¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » est prévu pour être résolu autour du May 19, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine » a une communauté active de 67 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « KY-04 Vainqueur de la primaire républicaine ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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