Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).The prediction market indicates a closely contested Colombia presidential election, with Candidate M holding a narrow lead at 49.5% implied probability, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%. This tight positioning among the top contenders reflects a fragmented field where support has yet to consolidate behind any single candidate amid diverse party alignments and policy priorities. The minimal probabilities assigned to the remaining contenders underscore limited early momentum for broader coalitions or endorsements. Key factors that could create separation include upcoming primary results, shifts in voter sentiment on economic and security matters, or formal alliance announcements that narrow the field ahead of the general ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
The prediction market indicates a closely contested Colombia presidential election, with Candidate M holding a narrow lead at 49.5% implied probability, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%. This tight positioning among the top contenders reflects a fragmented field where support has yet to consolidate behind any single candidate amid diverse party alignments and policy priorities. The minimal probabilities assigned to the remaining contenders underscore limited early momentum for broader coalitions or endorsements. Key factors that could create separation include upcoming primary results, shifts in voter sentiment on economic and security matters, or formal alliance announcements that narrow the field ahead of the general ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 15 2026
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
Apr 19 2026
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 25 2026
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 17 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Sep 1 2025
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum after strong debate performance
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%29%
Following a well-received debate performance, Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability surged from 27% to 56%, reflecting increased voter confidence in his candidacy.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 25 2025
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe Londoño's campaign, impacting his market price.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).The prediction market indicates a closely contested Colombia presidential election, with Candidate M holding a narrow lead at 49.5% implied probability, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%. This tight positioning among the top contenders reflects a fragmented field where support has yet to consolidate behind any single candidate amid diverse party alignments and policy priorities. The minimal probabilities assigned to the remaining contenders underscore limited early momentum for broader coalitions or endorsements. Key factors that could create separation include upcoming primary results, shifts in voter sentiment on economic and security matters, or formal alliance announcements that narrow the field ahead of the general ballot.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
The prediction market indicates a closely contested Colombia presidential election, with Candidate M holding a narrow lead at 49.5% implied probability, followed by Abelardo de la Espriella at 43.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 40.5%. This tight positioning among the top contenders reflects a fragmented field where support has yet to consolidate behind any single candidate amid diverse party alignments and policy priorities. The minimal probabilities assigned to the remaining contenders underscore limited early momentum for broader coalitions or endorsements. Key factors that could create separation include upcoming primary results, shifts in voter sentiment on economic and security matters, or formal alliance announcements that narrow the field ahead of the general ballot.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
May 15 2026
Late surge for Abelardo de la Espriella ahead of election day
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 44%16%
Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability rebounded to 44% on election day, indicating a late surge in voter support possibly due to final campaign efforts and strategic messaging.
Apr 19 2026
Paloma Valencia's support peaks amid growing media attention
Paloma Valencia rises to 44%4%
Media coverage and public interest pushed Paloma Valencia's market probability to a peak of 44%, reflecting heightened visibility and voter engagement.
Apr 1 2026
Colombian city Cartagena replaces horse buggies with electric carriages amid protests
Cartagena's move to replace horse-drawn buggies with electric carriages following animal welfare protests reflects social and cultural shifts in Colombia, indirectly influencing public sentiment and political discourse during the election period, with minor impact on candidate standings.
Mar 25 2026
Paloma Valencia's campaign surges after major policy announcement
Paloma Valencia surges to 41%32%
Paloma Valencia's market probability rose sharply from 9% to 41% following a major policy announcement that resonated with voters, marking her as a significant contender.
Mar 18 2026
Small plane crash in Colombia kills 15 including congress member
Iván Cepeda Castro dips to 41%3%
A tragic plane crash killed 15 people including a congressman and a congressional candidate, causing political shockwaves and impacting the election dynamics, particularly affecting the market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro and Abelardo de la Espriella as political stability concerns rose.
Mar 17 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella faces controversy, causing sharp drop in support
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 10%23%
A controversy involving Abelardo de la Espriella led to a significant drop in his market probability from 33% to 10%, indicating voter backlash and uncertainty about his candidacy.
Mar 12 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe launches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 44%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a defender of his son’s legacy and entering a crowded field, which boosted interest in candidates perceived as rivals or allies, notably affecting Abelardo de la Espriella’s support.
Feb 28 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in polls amid growing grassroots support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 50%11%
Iván Cepeda Castro's market probability jumped to 50% as grassroots movements and endorsements bolstered his campaign, signaling a shift in voter sentiment.
Feb 28 2026
DEA labels President Gustavo Petro a priority target in drug investigation
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 40%2%
The U.S. DEA’s designation of President Petro as a priority target raised concerns about his administration’s integrity, leading to a decline in support for candidates aligned with his coalition, particularly impacting Iván Cepeda Castro’s odds.
Jan 30 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro optimistic about upcoming White House meeting with Trump
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 38%4%
President Petro expressed optimism about a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling a diplomatic thaw after months of tension and sanctions, which influenced market perceptions of political stability and candidate viability, particularly benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro.
Dec 5 2025
DEA designates Colombian President Gustavo Petro as 'priority target' in drug trafficking probe
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 36%18%
The U.S. DEA named President Gustavo Petro a 'priority target' amid investigations into alleged drug trafficking ties, intensifying political controversy and affecting market confidence in left-wing candidate Iván Cepeda Castro and others associated with Petro's coalition.
Sep 1 2025
Abelardo de la Espriella's campaign gains momentum after strong debate performance
Abelardo de la Espriella surges to 56%29%
Following a well-received debate performance, Abelardo de la Espriella's market probability surged from 27% to 56%, reflecting increased voter confidence in his candidacy.
Aug 26 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid after son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 26%24%
Following the assassination of his son, presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, Miguel Uribe Londoño launched his own presidential campaign to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the market by introducing a new contender from the Democratic Colombia party and shifting support away from other candidates.
Aug 26 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the killed presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy aiming to defend his son's political legacy. This event impacted Abelardo de la Espriella's market price as it introduced a new contender linked to a significant political tragedy.
Aug 25 2025
Initial polling shows Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as frontrunners
Early polling data positioned Abelardo de la Espriella and Iván Cepeda Castro as the leading candidates, each starting with a 50% market probability, reflecting strong initial support and setting the stage for a competitive race.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella dips to 46%4%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, impacting the Democratic Center and the broader election dynamics.
Aug 20 2025
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe announces presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 45%5%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay, announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event increased attention on Uribe Londoño's campaign, impacting his market price.
Aug 20 2025
Miguel Uribe Londoño announces presidential bid following son's assassination
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 27%23%
Miguel Uribe Londoño, father of the murdered candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay, declared his candidacy for Colombia's presidency, aiming to continue his son's political legacy. This announcement shifted market expectations, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's and Iván Cepeda Castro's prospects as new dynamics emerged in the race.
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Questions fréquentes
« Élection présidentielle colombienne » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 19 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Abelardo de la Espriella » à 44%, suivi de « Iván Cepeda Castro » à 41%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 44¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Élection présidentielle colombienne » a généré $29.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 29, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Élection présidentielle colombienne », parcourez les 19 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Élection présidentielle colombienne » est « Abelardo de la Espriella » à 44%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 44% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Iván Cepeda Castro » à 41%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Élection présidentielle colombienne » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Élection présidentielle colombienne ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $29.1 million échangés sur « Élection présidentielle colombienne », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Élection présidentielle colombienne », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 44¢ pour « Abelardo de la Espriella » sur le marché « Élection présidentielle colombienne » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 44% que « Abelardo de la Espriella » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 44¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 56¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Élection présidentielle colombienne » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Jun 21, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Élection présidentielle colombienne » a une communauté active de 431 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Élection présidentielle colombienne ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
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Questions fréquentes