Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive due to strong Democratic challengers in Republican-held seats and open Democratic seats in swing states, producing tight polling averages and high trader attention on Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico after winning the GOP primary, with recent surveys showing margins under 5 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow polling. Ohio’s special election features Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown, while Alaska pits Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. These dynamics, combined with Maine’s Susan Collins race and Michigan’s open seat, sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, fundraising edges, or national environment changes could widen gaps before November 3. Trader consensus reflects this balanced map with no single race clearly separating.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTexas 23%
Iowa 17.1%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 11.6%
$27,561 Vol.
$27,561 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
23%
Iowa
17%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
12%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
7%
Nebraska
5%
Virginia
4%
Florida (Special)
3%
New Mexico
3%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Montana
1%
Minnesota
1%
Texas 23%
Iowa 17.1%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 11.6%
$27,561 Vol.
$27,561 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Texas
$772 Vol.
23%
Iowa
$2,622 Vol.
17%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
12%
Alaska
$5,108 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,346 Vol.
7%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive due to strong Democratic challengers in Republican-held seats and open Democratic seats in swing states, producing tight polling averages and high trader attention on Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico after winning the GOP primary, with recent surveys showing margins under 5 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow polling. Ohio’s special election features Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown, while Alaska pits Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. These dynamics, combined with Maine’s Susan Collins race and Michigan’s open seat, sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, fundraising edges, or national environment changes could widen gaps before November 3. Trader consensus reflects this balanced map with no single race clearly separating.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$27,561Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive due to strong Democratic challengers in Republican-held seats and open Democratic seats in swing states, producing tight polling averages and high trader attention on Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico after winning the GOP primary, with recent surveys showing margins under 5 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow polling. Ohio’s special election features Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown, while Alaska pits Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. These dynamics, combined with Maine’s Susan Collins race and Michigan’s open seat, sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, fundraising edges, or national environment changes could widen gaps before November 3. Trader consensus reflects this balanced map with no single race clearly separating.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,561Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive due to strong Democratic challengers in Republican-held seats and open Democratic seats in swing states, producing tight polling averages and high trader attention on Texas, Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska. In Texas, Ken Paxton faces James Talarico after winning the GOP primary, with recent surveys showing margins under 5 points. Iowa’s open seat pits Ashley Hinson against Josh Turek in similarly narrow polling. Ohio’s special election features Jon Husted versus Sherrod Brown, while Alaska pits Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. These dynamics, combined with Maine’s Susan Collins race and Michigan’s open seat, sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, fundraising edges, or national environment changes could widen gaps before November 3. Trader consensus reflects this balanced map with no single race clearly separating.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?
16%
La course au Sénat du Texas en 2026 se jouera-t-elle à moins de 5 % ?
72%
Oui
Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le vote populaire lors des élections de mi-mandat à la Chambre des représentants des États-Unis de 2026 avec une avance comprise entre 8 % et 10 % ?
27%
Oui
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