Washington’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered a 14.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, establishing a structural baseline that all independent ratings classify as Solid or Safe Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4 top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky; McKinney consolidated support across the Republican field in a district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. These factors, combined with historical election results and limited Democratic registration, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 90.5% Republican probability. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented turnout surge or late national reversal outside the district’s established partisan patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
WA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$50,609 Vol.
$50,609 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
91%
Parti démocrate
8%
$50,609 Vol.
$50,609 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$27,999 Vol.
91%
Parti démocrate
$22,611 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered a 14.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, establishing a structural baseline that all independent ratings classify as Solid or Safe Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4 top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky; McKinney consolidated support across the Republican field in a district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. These factors, combined with historical election results and limited Democratic registration, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 90.5% Republican probability. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented turnout surge or late national reversal outside the district’s established partisan patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$50,609Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered a 14.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, establishing a structural baseline that all independent ratings classify as Solid or Safe Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4 top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky; McKinney consolidated support across the Republican field in a district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. These factors, combined with historical election results and limited Democratic registration, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 90.5% Republican probability. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented turnout surge or late national reversal outside the district’s established partisan patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,609Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and delivered a 14.5-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, establishing a structural baseline that all independent ratings classify as Solid or Safe Republican. Incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement opened the seat, yet the August 4 top-two primary advanced Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney and Democrat John Duresky; McKinney consolidated support across the Republican field in a district encompassing Yakima and the Tri-Cities. These factors, combined with historical election results and limited Democratic registration, underpin trader consensus reflected in the current 90.5% Republican probability. A Democratic victory would require an unprecedented turnout surge or late national reversal outside the district’s established partisan patterns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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