Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
WA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
81%
Parti démocrate
20%
$26,839 Vol.
$26,839 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$13,712 Vol.
81%
Parti démocrate
$13,127 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$26,839Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,839Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a solid Republican seat across major forecasters. The open-seat dynamic following incumbent Dan Newhouse's decision not to seek reelection in 2026 has drawn multiple Republican candidates into the August top-two primary, while Democratic recruitment remains limited. Central Washington's voter geography, including areas around Yakima and the Tri-Cities, has historically produced double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. No major polling shifts or external events have altered this positioning in recent months, leaving the implied probability for a Republican winner near 80 percent as traders weigh the structural advantages against any potential late primary surprises.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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