Incumbent Republican Michael Guest holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.5% Republican implied probability. The seat’s R+14 partisan voting index, consistent double-digit Republican margins in prior cycles, and Guest’s unopposed March primary victory underpin trader consensus. Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a district covering eastern and central Mississippi areas including Meridian and parts of the Jackson suburbs. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur du MS-03 House Election
Vainqueur du MS-03 House Election
$60,578 Vol.
$60,578 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
96%
Parti démocrate
3%
$60,578 Vol.
$60,578 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$21,284 Vol.
96%
Parti démocrate
$39,294 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Guest holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.5% Republican implied probability. The seat’s R+14 partisan voting index, consistent double-digit Republican margins in prior cycles, and Guest’s unopposed March primary victory underpin trader consensus. Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a district covering eastern and central Mississippi areas including Meridian and parts of the Jackson suburbs. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$60,578Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Michael Guest holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.5% Republican implied probability. The seat’s R+14 partisan voting index, consistent double-digit Republican margins in prior cycles, and Guest’s unopposed March primary victory underpin trader consensus. Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a district covering eastern and central Mississippi areas including Meridian and parts of the Jackson suburbs. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,578Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Michael Guest holds a commanding position in Mississippi’s 3rd congressional district ahead of the November 3, 2026 general election, reflected in the 95.5% Republican implied probability. The seat’s R+14 partisan voting index, consistent double-digit Republican margins in prior cycles, and Guest’s unopposed March primary victory underpin trader consensus. Democratic nominee Michael Chiaradio faces structural barriers in a district covering eastern and central Mississippi areas including Meridian and parts of the Jackson suburbs. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health event affecting the incumbent, or an unforeseen national partisan wave could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive polling suggest limited realistic paths to an upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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