South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican district, with the party holding it continuously since 2008 and no Democratic victory in the modern era. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Marty Jackley, who defeated his main challenger by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Incumbent Dusty Johnson opted to run for governor instead, removing any intra-party disruption. Traders price the Republican outcome at 93.5 percent because the state's partisan composition, lack of competitive opposition, and consistent voting patterns create a wide structural edge. A realistic shift would require a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic surge, or a late-breaking personal or legal development capable of altering turnout among the state's conservative electorate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre SD-AL
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre SD-AL
$28,768 Vol.
$28,768 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
94%
Parti démocrate
4%
$28,768 Vol.
$28,768 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$21,079 Vol.
94%
Parti démocrate
$7,688 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican district, with the party holding it continuously since 2008 and no Democratic victory in the modern era. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Marty Jackley, who defeated his main challenger by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Incumbent Dusty Johnson opted to run for governor instead, removing any intra-party disruption. Traders price the Republican outcome at 93.5 percent because the state's partisan composition, lack of competitive opposition, and consistent voting patterns create a wide structural edge. A realistic shift would require a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic surge, or a late-breaking personal or legal development capable of altering turnout among the state's conservative electorate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$28,768Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican district, with the party holding it continuously since 2008 and no Democratic victory in the modern era. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Marty Jackley, who defeated his main challenger by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Incumbent Dusty Johnson opted to run for governor instead, removing any intra-party disruption. Traders price the Republican outcome at 93.5 percent because the state's partisan composition, lack of competitive opposition, and consistent voting patterns create a wide structural edge. A realistic shift would require a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic surge, or a late-breaking personal or legal development capable of altering turnout among the state's conservative electorate.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,768Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large House seat remains a strongly Republican district, with the party holding it continuously since 2008 and no Democratic victory in the modern era. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Marty Jackley, who defeated his main challenger by a wide margin, while Democrat Nicole Gronli advanced unopposed. Incumbent Dusty Johnson opted to run for governor instead, removing any intra-party disruption. Traders price the Republican outcome at 93.5 percent because the state's partisan composition, lack of competitive opposition, and consistent voting patterns create a wide structural edge. A realistic shift would require a major scandal affecting the Republican nominee, an unprecedented national Democratic surge, or a late-breaking personal or legal development capable of altering turnout among the state's conservative electorate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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