Tesla's recent share-price volatility remains the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market, with the stock closing at 422.24 on May 15 amid mixed earnings signals and broader tech rotation. Market-implied odds currently assign a 47% probability to a May 31 net worth above 690 billion, reflecting the consensus view that Musk's roughly 13% Tesla stake plus his SpaceX-xAI holdings will hold near recent levels despite year-to-date pressure on the automaker's valuation. Near-term catalysts include any follow-through from the latest quarterly results and ongoing SpaceX IPO preparations, which could influence private-asset marks. With resolution just two weeks away, these probabilities embed the market's assessment of limited downside from current equity benchmarks while acknowledging execution risks in the electric-vehicle and autonomous-driving segments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour690b+ 47%
680-690b 18%
670-680b 16%
620-630b 8.0%
$20,869 Vol.
$20,869 Vol.
<610b
4%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
10%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
18%
690b+
47%
690b+ 47%
680-690b 18%
670-680b 16%
620-630b 8.0%
$20,869 Vol.
$20,869 Vol.
<610b
4%
610-620b
3%
620-630b
8%
630-640b
10%
640-650b
3%
650-660b
8%
660-670b
8%
670-680b
16%
680-690b
18%
690b+
47%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/?embedded-checkout=true), specifically the datapoint for May 31, 2026, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Tesla's recent share-price volatility remains the dominant driver of trader positioning in this market, with the stock closing at 422.24 on May 15 amid mixed earnings signals and broader tech rotation. Market-implied odds currently assign a 47% probability to a May 31 net worth above 690 billion, reflecting the consensus view that Musk's roughly 13% Tesla stake plus his SpaceX-xAI holdings will hold near recent levels despite year-to-date pressure on the automaker's valuation. Near-term catalysts include any follow-through from the latest quarterly results and ongoing SpaceX IPO preparations, which could influence private-asset marks. With resolution just two weeks away, these probabilities embed the market's assessment of limited downside from current equity benchmarks while acknowledging execution risks in the electric-vehicle and autonomous-driving segments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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