Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland has exposed significant legal and evidentiary hurdles. Musk’s claims center on alleged breach of the original nonprofit charter for the artificial intelligence lab, yet closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations constraints and limited judicial remedies even if liability is found. OpenAI’s defense has emphasized Musk’s own early involvement and the company’s evolution into a for-profit entity backed by Microsoft, while recent filings show Musk explored settlement talks just days before trial. A jury verdict could still trigger post-trial hearings on damages, but realistic paths to a massive award remain narrow given appeals and the judge’s discretion over remedies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland has exposed significant legal and evidentiary hurdles. Musk’s claims center on alleged breach of the original nonprofit charter for the artificial intelligence lab, yet closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations constraints and limited judicial remedies even if liability is found. OpenAI’s defense has emphasized Musk’s own early involvement and the company’s evolution into a for-profit entity backed by Microsoft, while recent filings show Musk explored settlement talks just days before trial. A jury verdict could still trigger post-trial hearings on damages, but realistic paths to a massive award remain narrow given appeals and the judge’s discretion over remedies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$79,572Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland has exposed significant legal and evidentiary hurdles. Musk’s claims center on alleged breach of the original nonprofit charter for the artificial intelligence lab, yet closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations constraints and limited judicial remedies even if liability is found. OpenAI’s defense has emphasized Musk’s own early involvement and the company’s evolution into a for-profit entity backed by Microsoft, while recent filings show Musk explored settlement talks just days before trial. A jury verdict could still trigger post-trial hearings on damages, but realistic paths to a massive award remain narrow given appeals and the judge’s discretion over remedies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$79,572Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus settlement in his lawsuit against Sam Altman and OpenAI because the ongoing federal trial in Oakland has exposed significant legal and evidentiary hurdles. Musk’s claims center on alleged breach of the original nonprofit charter for the artificial intelligence lab, yet closing arguments highlighted statute-of-limitations constraints and limited judicial remedies even if liability is found. OpenAI’s defense has emphasized Musk’s own early involvement and the company’s evolution into a for-profit entity backed by Microsoft, while recent filings show Musk explored settlement talks just days before trial. A jury verdict could still trigger post-trial hearings on damages, but realistic paths to a massive award remain narrow given appeals and the judge’s discretion over remedies.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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